Considerations During a Recession

Jordan Rice, CFP® | Lead Senior Analyst

Kristin Lee | Senior Analyst

In March of this year, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the rapidly spreading coronavirus a global pandemic. The S&P 500 Index, representing large cap U.S. stocks, fell nearly 34 percent from its all-time high on February 19 to just over a month later on March 23. In times of intense market volatility, it can be difficult for investors to navigate and find the resources they need to feel reassured and in control. To help investors become more successful, Innovest offers the following considerations.

Utilize Resources

Your retirement plan provider may offer more educational resources than you know. Retirement plan providers offer online tools that are dedicated to teaching investors about retirement planning, investing and personal finance. Plan participants can often find easily digestible articles that can increase knowledge and understanding of the stock market, tax management, debt management and the economy, which may ultimately help them achieve their retirement goals.

Another resource your retirement plan provider may offer is an online calculator that can help you determine how much you should be contributing to your retirement account, or if you are on track to meet your retirement needs based on your lifestyle. Your retirement plan provider may also offer more specialized calculators for other financial needs. For example, they may have a calculator that can help determine appropriate college savings needs or can help you create a budget. These calculators are a great resource to model different scenarios that best meet your financial goals and needs.

In addition to the resources administered by your retirement plan provider, your retirement plan’s investment advisor (Innovest Portfolio Solutions) hosts several webinars on the economy and other topics to help investors gain a better understanding of how to navigate these uncertain times. Please visit www.innovestinc.com for a recording of these webinars.

Access Your Money

If you need to access money in your retirement account and your plan allows it, you may consider taking a loan from your account. You may take a loan of up to $50,000 or 50% of your vested balance, whichever is less. If you elect to do this, you will need to repay the loan within five years, and you will pay interest on the amount loaned. This loan should be treated as a last resort, as you will lose the benefit of the tax-deferred growth on the amount loaned.

Another option for accessing your money, if your retirement plan allows it, is a hardship withdrawal or an unforeseeable emergency. The IRS defines the qualification for a hardship withdrawal as “an immediate and heavy financial need”. If you consider this route to access your money, you will likely not have to pay a 10% penalty if you are under the age of 59½, but you will pay income tax on the amount withdrawn. In some cases, if you are directly affected by the coronavirus, the CARES Act may allow for this penalty to be waived this year. However, unlike a loan, you cannot return this money to your retirement account should your financial situation improve.

Another consideration during a recession is converting your pre-tax account into a Roth account, if your plan allows Roth contributions and if you have several years until retirement. Converting your pre-tax account serves two purposes:

1. You will pay taxes now while your account balance may be lower and while your tax bracket may be lower compared to future years.

2. You will not pay taxes on qualified Roth distributions in the future.

A Roth conversion may be a good option for those who wish to pay some taxes in the near-term in hopes of a longer-term tax benefit. However, you will need to have money set aside outside of the retirement account to pay taxes on the converted balance.

Consider Long-Term Financial Goals

When experiencing a volatile market, there are certain things that investors should keep in mind that will help you weather both recessions and economic expansions.

1. Stay diversified: Invest in a well-balanced portfolio that is not concentrated to just one fund, sector, or investment type such as a Target Date Fund, Risked Based Model or Balanced Fund. This “all weather” approach is designed to withstand the current market condition as well as future periods of stress. Consider broadening your exposure to different investments in your portfolio.

2. Tune out the noise: Market uncertainty brings out non-expert commentary on the situation. It can be difficult to tune out this noise in a time when there is a 24-hour news cycle, endless amounts of online articles and social media. Constantly consuming this content can create anxiety, which could lead to making short-term decisions that will negatively affect your long-term goals. Consider limiting your exposure to the noise.

3. Rebalance: Investment returns vary by investment type over time. If you started the year with a portfolio that was 60% stocks and 40% bonds, it may have drifted away from that target. Sell the investments that have performed well and buy the investments that are now undervalued. This sometimes violates our intuition of investing in companies that have been losing value. Sticking to your plan will help you achieve your long-term financial goals. Target Date Funds, Risked Based Models and Balanced Funds automatically rebalance without any action from the investors. Consider rebalancing to your target allocation of stocks and bonds.

4. Remain patient: A market value is not the same as market loss. Selling underperforming investments during a market downturn can turn a temporary loss into a permanent one, but remaining patient with your underperforming investments and focusing on your long-term goals will avoid this mistake. As markets recover, so too will your retirement account’s value. Remember that market upturns and downturns do not last forever. Consider taking a long-term view to your retirement account.

We understand that the uncertainty and volatility make investors uneasy. Investing is a best suited for those who realize that just like the up-markets do not last forever, the down-market do not last forever either. Stay focused on your long-term investing goals and you will be set up to weather the storms.